The 2023 report from IPEDS provides insights into degree conferral trends across the U.S. We’re breaking down what your institution needs to know.
Data is an essential resource for higher education institutions looking to create sustainable long-term growth. The 2023 report from the Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS) offers some of the most granular academic data that is publicly available, providing valuable snapshots of current trends in higher education.
We compiled data from this release and analyzed it against data from the past four years, identifying trends to help higher education institutions with strategic planning and decision-making. Here are five of the most important takeaways from our analysis.
1: Undergraduate degrees are down, graduate degrees are up
Reflecting on enrollment changes over time can help higher education institutions make data-informed decisions and plan strategically for long-term success.
When comparing 2023’s year-over-year data, we found a decrease in undergraduate degree conferrals, even while more students were earning graduate degrees.
- Bachelor’s degrees: -2.43%
- Associate’s degrees: -4.83%
- Master’s degrees: +6.02%
- Doctorate degrees: +0.63%
2023 is one of the most COVID-impacted years of degree conferral data. COVID disrupted the early undergraduate years of 4-year bachelor’s students and 2-year associate’s students who were deciding to enroll during the height of the pandemic. While it isn’t the only factor, we believe the impact of COVID-19 greatly influenced the dip in undergraduate degrees conferred in 2023.
“Each generation of student is different from the last in some ways, but the pandemic has especially impacted how prospective students are approaching higher education,” says Shane Hunsberger, Senior Analyst at Eduvantis.
Meanwhile, more students were choosing to enroll in graduate programs in 2020 and 2021. Layoffs and company closures motivated some professionals to pursue advanced degrees, often part-time (leading to their completion a few years later).
International student enrollments in graduate programs have also increased substantially, which aids these conferrals increases. (More on that to come below.)
Further research into long-term trends can be conducted by analyzing extended historical data sets. We recommend investigating data for your institution’s programs relative to competitor and market trends to inform your strategic decision-making.
2: International students are boosting master’s program enrollments
The continued return of international students to master’s programs marks an encouraging trend in higher education after a period of uncertainty caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.
From 2022 to 2023, the share of international students conferring into master’s degrees jumped nearly 5%. 96% of the year-over-year increase in master’s conferrals can be attributed to this segment.
Recommendations for higher education institutions
There is no one-size-fits-all approach to growth in higher education. While the international graduate education market is growing, it’s not the right fit for everyone.
Degree programs and geographic location greatly impact the enrollment decisions of international students. If you don’t offer those degrees and/or aren’t located in geographies attractive to international candidates you’re swimming against the tide.
We recommend developing a thoughtful, data-informed strategy for targeting international students in your recruitment efforts.
“Recruiting for international students successfully means first gaining brand traction abroad–doing this requires smart strategic choice-making bolstered by solid research,” explains Steve Shriberg, VP of Consulting Services and Partner at Eduvantis. “Then, you have to provide those prospects with the right support services so they can successfully apply for and obtain visas. Finally, once those students get here, they need specialized on-campus support to ensure they are successful. Any weak link in that chain will inhibit your ability to effectively grow enrollment through international expansion.”
3: Pre-baccalaureate certificates surge
Certificate programs are an increasing source of revenue generation for higher education institutions. As a result, many institutions are considering how they can strategically incorporate certificate programs into their portfolio.
Pre-baccalaureate certificates have shown significant growth over the past few years. They are now the second-highest conferring award level reported into IPEDS (behind only bachelor’s degrees). This growth is, in large part, due to the increase in certificates that can be completed in less than a year.
- Certificates that take between 12-52 weeks were the highest conferred segment of pre-baccalaureate certificates in 2023, having grown 4.5% year-over-year.
- While certificates of less than 12 weeks are the third-highest segment, they saw a strong growth of 7.5% year-over-year.
4: Regional trends are reflected in degree conferral changes
It’s important to consider regional trends when analyzing year-over-year degree conferral changes. Doing so provides insights into local and regional demand for specific academic programs, allowing your institution to better align your program offerings with student needs.
“Many areas of the United States are experiencing a decline in college-aged students,” says Hunsberger. “It is becoming more important to ensure your programs are aligned with today’s market demand—and not the market demand of 20 years ago.”
Certain states/regions performed better than others in terms of year-over-year degree conferral change. The six largest regions showing year-over-year decline in conferral volume include:
- Southeast (-1.0%)
- Far West (-2.8%)
- Mid East (-1.9%)
- Great Lakes (-1.1%)
- Southwest (-0.3%)
- Plains (-1.8%)
New England—which only made up 6% of total degree conferral volume in 2023—was the only region that saw growth at a 2.5% increase year-over-year.
The Rocky Mountains—the smallest region in terms of degree conferrals—was stagnant year-over-year (only 7 additional conferrals between 2022 and 2023).
Since this is a lagging indicator, it is important to consider your state’s population and age demographics when building your strategy.
If your institution is in a region with a decline in degree conferrals, it’s time to implement strategic initiatives to create long-term growth. This can include assessing your program offerings, enhancing your recruitment and marketing efforts, and strengthening community partnerships.
Meanwhile, institutions with positive year-over-year degree conferral growth should not rest on their laurels. Be sure to examine what has been working the past few years and determine how to optimize and replicate these efforts to stay ahead.
5: Degree conferrals vary between for-profit and nonprofit institutions
Undergraduate degree conferrals by institution type
Public institutions have traditionally dominated the undergraduate space due to their associations with increased diversity, lower cost, and a broader range of programs.
Private for-profit institutions make up a smaller percentage of degree conferral volume; however, we have seen a year-over-year increase in associate’s degree conferrals from private, for-profit institutions, as well as a reduction in bachelor’s degree conferral decreases year-over-year. The takeaway: private higher education institutions are gaining traction in the undergraduate market.
Graduate degree conferrals by institution type
Graduate programs reflect a much different trend. Between 2022 and 2023, only private, for-profit institutions experienced a decline in graduate degree conferrals. Meanwhile, public and private nonprofit institutions were steady for doctorate degree conferrals and gained a significant leg up for master’s degree programs.
Overall, we found that private, nonprofit higher education institutions are becoming more competitive with public universities at the graduate level. One key factor: they are often better equipped to launch online programs with fewer obstacles, which has proven to be an advantage in today’s post-pandemic world.
One possible impact: Perception of private vs. public institutions
While more data is needed to study this impact, keeping apprised of public perception may be key to preventing future declines in student enrollment. The public’s view of an institution’s value, affordability, and reputation can play a role in shaping enrollment trends. For example, prospective students might assume a public institution has lower tuition but higher class sizes.
Colleges and universities that cultivate a positive image and address concerns related to cost and value have a leg up on attracting and retaining students. There are several strategic actions you can take to enhance your public perception and spotlight your value, such as via marketing campaigns, program enhancements, and community engagement with partners and alumni.
The Eduvantis marketing team is a valuable resource for higher education institutions looking to strengthen their brand identity.
Takeaways for higher education institutions
The trends identified in this report contribute to a range of factors impacting enrollment across higher education institutions.
Every institution should be preparing for the enrollment cliff and its potentially significant impact on the higher-education landscape. While past-looking data will not fully predict how to combat this issue, using it correctly can help institutions prepare for what’s to come.
Whether your institution is facing challenges with undergraduate enrollments, seeking to capitalize on growth in the graduate market, or somewhere in between, Eduvantis is here to help.
We specialize in providing data-driven strategies and insights to help you thrive in the dynamic higher education landscape. Our team of expert marketing and consulting specialists will work closely with you to understand your program’s unique goals and develop a tailored plan to effectively reach your target markets. The result is long-term success and sustainable growth.